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Dober vs Hein

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Drew Dober vs. Nick Hein Fight Video Pick: Patrick Wyman: Hein is an accomplished, nearly world-class judoka with a predictably brutal clinch game and excellent work from top position. Dober has the advantage at range, but lacks the pop in his strikes to make Hein think twice about closing the distance. Hein, unanimous decision.

Cedenblad vs Jotko

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Magnus Cedenblad vs. Krzysztof Jotko Fight Video Pick: Anton Tabuena: I'm sorry, I honestly don't know enough about both these guys, so uhh, tails it is! Jotko by Decision.

Alcantara vs Lee

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Iuri Alcantara vs. Vaughan Lee Pick: Mookie Alexander: Lee's game looked very improved in his beatdown of Nam Phan ... but this is not Nam Phan. Alcantara is the superior fighter and has been better against a higher level of opposition and I include his loss to Urijah Faber. Iuri Alcantara, submission, round 2.

Barnatt vs Strickland

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Luke Barnatt vs. Sean Strickland Fight Video Pick: Anton Tabuena: If you didn't believe me during his first fight, believe me now. Strickland is a legit prospect, and while Barnatt has the tools to give him some issues, I think he will be able to land decent shots and get top control to win this handily. Sean Strickland by Decision.

Backstrom vs Niinimaki

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Niklas Backstrom vs. Tom Niinimaki Fight Video Pick: Patrick Wyman: I had Backstrom, a product of Sweden's Allstars camp along with Alexander Gustafsson, Reza Madadi, and Nico Musoke, as the eleventh-ranked fighter on my Searching for Future Champions list. He's something of a dark horse, not having fought more than twice per year since beginning his career, but he's also a fascinating prospect with absurd upside. Backstrom has deceptive speed and athleticism for such a big, rangy featherweight (6'0), and his top game features a brutal arsenal of punches and elbows, which he seamlessly integrates into his smooth passes. He's also a fine wrestler and in-fighter; while his striking at range needs some work, it's coming along nicely. Niinimaki is a fine featherweight in his own right, but if he tries to engage Backstrom in the clinch or grapple with him - and I think he'll be more than willing - he's going to be in for a real surprise. Backstrom, unanimous decision.

Magomedov vs Pesta

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Ruslan Magomedov vs Viktor Pesta Fight Video Prediction: Fraser Coffeen: Fun fact, Mago has wins over TWO former UFC HW champs. Granted it's Tim Sylvia in 2013 and Ricco Rodriguez in 2012, but expect to hear that fact touting his credentials a few times this weekend. Just wanted to get in there first. Two Champs! Ruslan Magomedov, KO, round 1

Alves vs. Alexandre JR



Warlley Alves vs. Marcio Alexandre Jr. Fight Video Pick: I've been on the Warlley train since I named him as one of the honorable mentions on my prospect report last December. He's a ridiculously talented athlete out of X-Gym with a rapidly developing and very powerful striking game, better-than-you'd-think wrestling, and the slick, vicious submission arsenal you'd expect from one of Jacare Souza's prize pupils. Alexandre is a solid striker, but he's so outmatched here physically that Alves should have his way with him. Warlley Alves, KO, round 2.

Thiago vs Umalatov

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Paulo Thiago vs. Gasan Umalatov fight video pick: Mookie Alexander: I'm tempted to pick Umalatov solely for the "Thiago has another job and looks like a really shopworn fighter", but I'll be damned if I don't pick Sam the Eagle one more time. Paulo Thiago by decision.

DILLASHAW vs BARAO


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Renan Barao vs. T.J. Dillashaw fight video PREDICTION: With Duane Ludwig at the helm of Team Alpha Male for this one last fight, Dillashaw will be his last chance at championship gold. Dillashaw seems to have come the longest way since going under the tutelage of “Bang” however is that enough to stop Barao for the first time in years. UFC President Dana White has been pushing how good Barao is over the past little while and truth be told he is undefeated in his last 32 fights. My pick is Renan Barao via Round 2 TKO.

HENDERSON vs CORMIER


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Daniel Cormier vs. Dan Henderson fight video PREDICTION: Daniel Cormier is choosing to stay active rather than wait around for a title shot, and he takes a rather odd fight against Dan Henderson here. Henderson does still have power in his hands as we clearly saw against Shogun Rua, but if Cormier goes out here and blows him over it won’t raise too many eyebrows. It will however be a good name to build up his resume – certainly better than Patrick Cummins. Daniel Cormier via Round 3 TKO

ELLENBERGER vs LAWLER


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Jake Ellenberger vs Robbie Lawler fight video PREDICTION: I made the mistake of getting excited for Ellenberger/MacDonald, so I’m keeping my excitement levels down for this one. Lawler is coming in after a worryingly short lay off from a grueling five round fight where he took 111 significant strikes to the head. This doesn’t bode well for him being 100%, but I’m not convinced of Ellenberger’s ability to hold his own against high level welterweights either. I think Lawler does enough to win the decision here, but it will not be the same kind of performance we saw at UFC 171. Robbie Lawler via Unanimous Decision

Rivera vs Francisco


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Takeya Mizugaki vs. Francisco Rivera fight video PREDICTION: Very tempting to pick Rivera because outside of Michael McDonald he's arguably the heaviest puncher at 135 lbs. Rivera by KO is a good possibility considering Mizugaki was getting tagged a bit by Nam Phan in the later parts of their fight, but when comparing their overall skill sets, I favor Mizugaki. Rivera is just a tad too one-dimensional for me and Mizugaki would be wise to put Rivera on his back and work from there. Takeya Mizugaki by unanimous decision.

Clarke vs Iaquinta


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Al Iaquinta vs Mitch Clarke fight video PREDICTION: Mookie Alexander: Awful matchup for Clarke. He's out of his depth as a striker and he can't grind Iaquinta out. Al Iaquinta by TKO, round 1. Patrick Wyman: Pretty straightforward matchup here. Iaquinta is a much better striker with the takedown defense to keep this on the feet where he wants it, and he's flashed much-improved KO power in his last few fights. Iaquinta, KO, round 2.

Ferguson vs Kikuno


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Katsunori Kikuno vs Tony Ferguson fight video PREDICTION - Tim Burke: I hate this fight. Kikuno's awesome but Ferguson is just a terrible matchup for him. So sad. Tony Ferguson by decision. Fraser Coffeen: Don't listen to the rest of the staff Kikuno - I still believe in your funky Kyokushin ways. Katsunori Kikuno by KO, round 1

Jingliang vs Michaud



David Michaud vs. Li Jingliang fight video PREDICTION: Zane Simon: Jingliang doesn't really strike at all, but Michaud has a clinch grinding style that could play right into Jingliangs super clingly grappling. Jingliang is also beastly strong and Michaud is a bit undersized. Still I'm not all that confident in Jingliang's ability to close the distance, and Michaud has a lot more striking tools at his disposal. So I'll take him here, even though there's every possibility that Jingliang just drags him down and subs him. David Michaud by decision.

Krause vs Varner


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Jamie Varner vs James Krause fight video PREDICTION: I think Varner's renaissance has come to an end. The Trujillo fight was awesome, but his longstanding habit of getting punched in the face finally resulted in the biggest consequence of getting knocked out cold. Krause has developed his striking well enough over the years and his submission game poses huge problems for Varner and that's how he'll get the victory. James Krause by submission, round 2.

Chiesa vs Trinaldo


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Michael Chiesa vs. Francisco Trinaldo fight video PREDICTION: Chiesa has shown steady improvement since his TUF run. He's still pretty raw on the feet, but it's less of a liability than it was on the show. As for his wrestling - it remains some of the most underrated in the UFC today. Seriously. He's very good at dragging you down, controlling you, and ultimately tapping you out. He has a ceiling for sure, but I think that ceiling is above this fight. Michael Chiesa by submission, round 2

Holdsworth vs Camus


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Chris Holdsworth vs. Chico Camus fight video PREDICTION: When in doubt, Team Alpha Male guy. Chris Holdsworth, submission, round 1. Patrick Wyman: The fact that Camus has hung around the UFC - he's actually 3-1 - despite not being that great at anything is kind of astounding. He has crappy takedown defense, isn't a very good striker, and offers zero threat of finishing the fight on the ground. Holdsworth isn't a great striker, but he has fantastic coaches and he's developing quickly; he's also a much cleaner and more technical wrestler, and on the ground he holds a massive advantage. I don't think Camus can keep it standing, and once it hits the mat Holdsworth will work his venomous submission game. Holdsworth, submission, round 1.

RAMPAGE vs LAWAL


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RAMPAGE vs KING MO LAWAL PREDICTION: This one is a bit tough to figure out. Neither fighter has recently looked like themselves at their most potent, but you have to wonder if Lawal is still rebuilding from the staph infections that nearly took his leg. Could he be getting better each time out? Perhaps, but I'm going to side with Jackson. His takedown defense is still pretty sturdy, he's riding a wave of confidence and Lawal hasn't (of late, anyway) been able to fluidly mix his striking and takedowns. If this is about striking on the outside, I don't have much of a choice but to pick Rampage even if I acknowledge he's not the threat he once was. Pick: Jackson

TITO vs SHLEMENKO


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Tito Ortiz vs. Alexander Shlemenko PREDICTION: From what I can tell, this is a set-up fight for Shlemenko (it's certainly a no-lose situation). He'll defeat the larger Ortiz, probably via stoppage by body shot in the second or third rounds, and it'll lift his name to prominence a bit more. That's what the aim here is. I don't see any scenario where Ortiz comes out looking great, short of a blistering knockout win early in the contest, something that's highly unlikely. Shlemenko is tough as nails and adept at slowly chipping away at flawed opponents. Pick: Shlemenko

CHANDLER vs BROOKS


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Michael Chandler vs. Will Brooks PREDICTION: Brooks might be able to surprise us all, but I doubt it. He's a talented fighter, for sure, but still in the developmental stages of his skill building. Chandler's getting better, too, but is much more of a dynamic threat. For a lack of a better description, he can do a lot more in a lot more phases of the game, both individually and in blend. I suspect he's going to be all over Brooks and will eventually force the rising lightweight into making a mistake that costs him the contest. Pick: Chandler

Ivanov vs Volkov


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PREDICTION: I'm surprised the odds are so close. Look, on the feet, Volkov is a legitimate threat. That isn't to say Ivanov is totally outmatched there, but it's certainly the best space for Volkov. On the mat, however, this isn't even a contest. Ivanov is leagues better as a guard passing submission threat. I'd be shocked if Ivanov doesn't take this fight to the mat and finish it there. Pick: Ivanov

Page vs Rainey


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PREDICTION: Rainey has been brought in to lose, not because he's a bad fighter, but because he's likely to play into Page's game plan. He openly states he never fights with a strategy ahead of time. That's a fatal mistake against a guy who a) pretty clearly has one strategy and b) is absolutely lethal on those terms. Rainey has the ability to win, but as long as he's unwilling to strategize, he won't here. Pick: Page

Kongo vs Smith


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PREDICTION: Fresh off an unsuccessful title bid against heavyweight champ Vitaly Minakov (five-round decision loss), French Thai boxer Cheick Kongo (20-9) draws an unknown figure in Eric Smith (6-1). But before you write Smith off based on name recognition: he was a Division 1 All-American wrestler at Boise State, he wrestled UFC heavyweight champ Cain Velasquez in college (lost on points in a competitive match) and he trains at Syndicate MMA with the likes of Blagoi Ivanov and Roy Nelson.

SILVA vs BROWN


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Matt Brown vs. Erick Silva PREDICTION: There are only two realistic outcomes to this fight - Brown knocks Silva senseless or Silva does horrendous things to his limbs and/or neck and forces the tap. I absolutely believe Silva is capable of schooling Brown on the ground, and that's where Silva's greatest strength is. However, if Silva can't get the finish in round 1 or decides to go all-out striking, then this ends badly for him, as he has the worse defense, chin, and cardio. Something about Silva's ceiling just suggests "Brazilian Guillard" -- he's been competing in MMA for 9 years (as long as Matt Brown) -- and if he's a real top 10 caliber talent then he should've beaten one by now. He hasn't, and while this is a highly winnable fight for Silva, I'm going with Brown to continue his amazing run. Matt Brown by KO, round 1.

Philippou vs Larkin


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Lorenz Larkin vs. Constantinos Philippou PREDICTION: Even if Larkin hasn't fixed his problems with volume striking (and it sounds like he is working on them) I think he wins this fight. Philippou will throw "punches in bunches" once he gets his range and rhythm, but that usually takes him about a round, and is predicated on him getting lots of space to work. Larkin could easily give him that space, but I think his variety and power will keep Philippou on his heels long enough to stop him from building any momentum. Lorenz Larkin by Decision.

Magny vs Means


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PREDICTION: Jon Anik is probably going to say "Tim Means Business", I'm going to groan, but then I'll remember that it's a good thing because it almost certainly means (get it? MEANS?!) that Tim will win this one. He's a horrible match-up for Magny and I'm glad he's back in the UFC. Tim Means by KO, round 2.

Cariaso vs Smolka


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PREDICTION: I don't think there's any denying that Smolka is a talented prospect; the real question is whether he's ready to deal with a tough, well-rounded veteran like Cariaso. I think he is. Smolka's pace, grappling, range striking, and lengthy frame make him a tough matchup for a small guy without much in the way of dynamic finishing ability. Smolka, unanimous decision.

Lapsley vs Tumenov


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PREDICTION: I and a lot of other people were pretty high on Tumenov coming into his UFC debut against Ildemar Alcantara a few months back. Losing a close decision to a tough, savvy veteran doesn't invalidate that hype, though it does mean that he needs an impressive performance here to regain some of his lost aura. Fortunately, Lapsley doesn't seem like the kind of fighter who should be capable of giving Tumenov fits. He's a pretty one-dimensional top control/submission guy, and if Tumenov can't stuff his takedowns and work his vicious striking game, then he doesn't yet belong in the UFC. Tumenov, unanimous decision.

GREEN vs WEICHEL


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PREDICTION: Featherweight tournament final Daniel Weichel vs. Desmond Green: This fight is arguably the toughest to call on the whole card when trying to predict a winner. Weichel is a talented athlete who hasn't tasted defeat yet in the Bellator cage. His opponent is a fine prospect who's had a string of impressive performances in the organization, out-muscling his opponents when finding victory.

JONES vs TEIXEIRA


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PREDICTION: The X-factor here is whether or not Glover Teixeira is as dangerous off of his back as Vitor Belfort was. Jones tends to get a bit careless in guard and it's ripe for armbars. I don't see Glover having the success that Gustafsson had on the feet, primarily because Gustafsson had the comparable size and is arguably the best overall striker in the division. Theoretically, Glover has a puncher's chance, but after that it should be all Jones. Jon Jones by TKO (ground strikes), round 3.

DAVIS vs JOHNSON


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PREDICTION: At the outset I really felt like this fight was going to be competitive, the more I thought about it though the less I think this will be the case. What's worse is that I think Rumble expects this to be a very competitive fight and while I don't think he'll get finished I wouldn't be surprised at all if he found himself getting out struck, taken down, and generally roughed up on the way to a clear 3 round loss. If he cracks Davis all that could change as it might change Davis' confidence, but I think Davis, as good as he is, is better than advertised. I see him cruising by a overconfident, underprepared Anthony Jonson. Phil Davis by decision.

Fili vs Holloway


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PREDICTION: I've underestimated Holloway in the past and don't feel entirely comfortable picking Fili, especially considering Holloway's solid takedown defense and creative striking, but the power advantage clearly goes to Fili. This has potential to be FOTN and I think that's what we'll get, but Fili should have what it takes to get a late stoppage. Andre Fili, submission, round 3.

Medeiros vs Miller


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PREDICTION: I love watching Jim Miller fight, but I think he's on the decline. He's been taking beatings in his losses and that's a concern of mine, and that he's the only fighter in 4 fights not to defeat Pat Healy could suggest more about Miller than of Healy. I actually think Medeiros' striking could test Miller's chin a bit, but the deciding factor will be Miller's fantastic ground game, where his advantage is distinctly clear. Jim Miller, submission, round 2.

Boetsch vs Rockhold


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PREDICTION: Boetsch's run at 185 was fun, if not aided by a questionable decision and a miraculous KO, but he's regressed big time. Rockhold is going to tool him from start to finish, and the only thing worth watching is whether Rockhold gets a stoppage or does enough to get a 10-8 here and there. Luke Rockhold by lopsided unanimous decision.

Benavidez vs Elliott


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PREDICTION: Unless Johnson irrevocably broke something fundamental in Benavidez last time out, he's just a better fighter than Elliott in every phase. Elliott is fun, quirky, and durable, with a surprisingly well-rounded game, but he doesn't have the speed, power, or explosiveness that Benavidez brings to the table. Benavidez, unanimous decision.

Correia vs Duke


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PREDICTION: Correia has the advantage on paper. She has more fights, she's faced better competition, and she's coming off a win over veteran Julie Kedzie, while Duke remains a pretty raw fighter who seems to have potential that has not yet been realized. But she's also a fast learner, and has been working with Rousey. It's entirely possible that I am giving her too much credit, but I think she's on the rise, and quickly, and I think this will be a big fight for her. Jessamyn Duke by submission, round 1.

Brenneman vs Castillo


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PREDICTION: Brenneman folds when he gets hit flush, isn't going to grind Castillo, so it's Castillo's fight to lose. His killer instinct cost him fights against Michael Johnson and Edson Barboza, but if he can't get the finish on Brenneman he should still be able to get the decision. I think he gets the stoppage anyway. Danny Castillo, submission, round 2.

Gomi vs Vallie-Flagg


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PREDICTION: IVF seems like a nice guy, but this is the Fireball Kid. The greatest of all time. THE GREATEST OF ALL TIME. If you don't think he's the greatest of all time, I got two words for you. Oh, Steph and Karim...we're gonna have to have a little chat outside the bar. Takanori Gomi by homicide.

Beal vs Williams


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PREDICTION: I know that Chris Beal is the "name" fighter here, but this is a terrible matchup for him. Coming out of Knuckleheadz Boxing gym, he's a really one dimensional talent (and it's not a terribly deep dimension). He boxes well, but without power, and without the greatest defensive base in the world. Across from him will be former ASU wrestler Patrick Williams, who cut his teeth alongside Velasquez, Dolloway, and Bader on the mat. Since his wrestling days he's developed a devastatingly powerful striking game to accompany his powerful wrestling skills. He's a bit of a "live by the sword" fighter, but between two guys who are going to throw strikes and get hit, I'll take the one with real KO power, a kicking game, and a solid wrestling game, over the low powered boxer with a shallow record. Patrick Williams by KO, round 2.

Mizugaki vs Rivera


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Takeya Mizugaki vs. Francisco Rivera fight video PREDICTION: Very tempting to pick Rivera because outside of Michael McDonald he's arguably the heaviest puncher at 135 lbs. Rivera by KO is a good possibility considering Mizugaki was getting tagged a bit by Nam Phan in the later parts of their fight, but when comparing their overall skill sets, I favor Mizugaki. Rivera is just a tad too one-dimensional for me and Mizugaki would be wise to put Rivera on his back and work from there. Takeya Mizugaki by unanimous decision.

Iaquinta vs Clarke


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Al Iaquinta vs Mitch Clarke fight video PREDICTION: Mookie Alexander: Awful matchup for Clarke. He's out of his depth as a striker and he can't grind Iaquinta out. Al Iaquinta by TKO, round 1. Patrick Wyman: Pretty straightforward matchup here. Iaquinta is a much better striker with the takedown defense to keep this on the feet where he wants it, and he's flashed much-improved KO power in his last few fights. Iaquinta, KO, round 2.

MOUSASI vs MUNOZ

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Gegard Mousasi and Mark Munoz Fight Video - In the main event, Gegard Mousasi and Mark Munoz will do battle. These middleweights both make the cut on the media voted top 15 provided by the UFC, but surprisingly, the 11th ranked Mousasi is a big 1.37 (-270) favourite over the number 7 ranked Mark Munoz who sits at 3.57 (+257). We strongly feel that while our model has Mousasi to win and our initial inclination is definitely that Mousasi should take the victory, that the smart money would actually fall on Munoz in this case.

BARAO vs DILLASHAW


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Renan Barao vs. T.J. Dillashaw fight video PREDICTION: With Duane Ludwig at the helm of Team Alpha Male for this one last fight, Dillashaw will be his last chance at championship gold. Dillashaw seems to have come the longest way since going under the tutelage of “Bang” however is that enough to stop Barao for the first time in years. UFC President Dana White has been pushing how good Barao is over the past little while and truth be told he is undefeated in his last 32 fights. My pick is Renan Barao via Round 2 TKO.

CORMIER vs HENDERSON


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Daniel Cormier vs. Dan Henderson fight video PREDICTION: Daniel Cormier is choosing to stay active rather than wait around for a title shot, and he takes a rather odd fight against Dan Henderson here. Henderson does still have power in his hands as we clearly saw against Shogun Rua, but if Cormier goes out here and blows him over it won’t raise too many eyebrows. It will however be a good name to build up his resume – certainly better than Patrick Cummins. Daniel Cormier via Round 3 TKO

LAWLER vs ELLENBERGER


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Jake Ellenberger vs Robbie Lawler fight video PREDICTION: I made the mistake of getting excited for Ellenberger/MacDonald, so I’m keeping my excitement levels down for this one. Lawler is coming in after a worryingly short lay off from a grueling five round fight where he took 111 significant strikes to the head. This doesn’t bode well for him being 100%, but I’m not convinced of Ellenberger’s ability to hold his own against high level welterweights either. I think Lawler does enough to win the decision here, but it will not be the same kind of performance we saw at UFC 171. Robbie Lawler via Unanimous Decision
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